TheMightyImp2

Roulette not random at all.

40 posts in this topic

You can quit game at the xmb and re roll your roulette gifts.

 

But it won't help at all, it's all a foregone conclusion.

 

See my video.

 

 

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I suspected that it wasn't random when my first 3 were all the smallest stack of coins. Hopefully only the earliest ones are predetermined. 

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The 4 times I did it I got credits every. Dang. Time!

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2 hours ago, barra333 said:

I suspected that it wasn't random when my first 3 were all the smallest stack of coins. Hopefully only the earliest ones are predetermined. 

 

mine weren't.

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The roulette in GT Sport was never randomised either, just the prizes shown on screen were. You'll always get whatever you were going to get.

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1 minute ago, pinkrobot_pb said:

So to prove it is random, the devs should have allowed you to keep reloading the spins until you wint the best car? That makes absolutely no sense. It's like being allowed to rewatch a lottery draw until you win the jackpot.

I guess it is more along the lines of how random it could possibly be if you win the worst prize 4 times in a row. I assume it is random to a point, where the lowest credit prize has a 90% (or some coded odds) and the others are 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% in order of value. 

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Posted (edited)

There has got to be an issue with these. I just opened two 3 star cards in a row and got coins both times (there is only 1 option for coins in these). I'm just going to sit on my cards for now. I've yet to get anything other than coins from any I've opened.

Edited by Feli-Rysto-
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Posted (edited)

21 minutes ago, barra333 said:

I guess it is more along the lines of how random it could possibly be if you win the worst prize 4 times in a row. I assume it is random to a point, where the lowest credit prize has a 90% (or some coded odds) and the others are 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% in order of value. 

 

Absolutely, but that is a different subject to what was mentioned in the video and the opening post. That was about the results being predetermined. In other words, once you get an entry into the roulette, the game has already decided what the outcome will be. That just makes sense when you are the developer. Otherwise users could just quit to XMB and reload their spins to try again.

 

As for the odds themselves, no idea. Can you spend real money to get more spins? Because the last thing I heard, in that case the odds need to be published somewhere so you can make an informed decision whether or not to buy them.

Edited by pinkrobot_pb
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17 minutes ago, pinkrobot_pb said:

As for the odds themselves, no idea. Can you spend real money to get more spins? Because the last thing I heard, in that case the odds need to be published somewhere so you can make an informed decision whether or not to buy them.

 

Currently, only credits can be purchased as far as I know.

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not sure how this proves it isn't random tbh

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, barra333 said:

I guess it is more along the lines of how random it could possibly be if you win the worst prize 4 times in a row. I assume it is random to a point, where the lowest credit prize has a 90% (or some coded odds) and the others are 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% in order of value. 

 

 

It is random though. The prize pool and what you win is randomized, just when you receive the ticket it already has a prize selected, so you can't keep re-rolling until you get what you wsnt. It's not always the lowest amount of credits. I got a couple of cars, a tuning part and some higher credit awards across my 15 or so tickets.

Edited by J_Chmielinski
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6 hours ago, DaivRules said:


That’s definitely statistically possible. Every card gives you the same chance. It doesn’t adjust over time, or for the number of attempts. So, according to your example, there is a 60% chance you’ll get credits. Every card, it’s the same 60% chance. Statistically, there’s no reason why it would be impossible to end up with the thing you always have a 60% chance of ending up with.

 

 


For each individual trial, sure. There comes a point though where it becomes vanishingly unlikely to hit a 60% chance so many times in a row. Even ten in a row is a less than 1% shot. At that point it becomes reasonable to wonder if the odds are actually 60% (which to be fair we do not know). I think there are some pretty standard statistical hypothesis tests to determine that.

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People think because it shows 5 Prices you have 20% on every individuale Price . 5 prices doesnt mean same chance on every price . Im sure it has way lower chance to land on a Car . But showing it like the game does creats the illusion it has same % .

An the reseting of the game shows the price is already rolled when you get the Ticket . Many games do this to avoid reset abuse.

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Posted (edited)

this is what happens when you get randomized outcomes from computer games. The computer's outcome is generated before visually shown to you. It is still random even though the UI for the result isn't the determining act. 

 

WIth it being saved means no save scumming/reloading to cheat

Edited by TJ_Solo
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If it is predetermined then everyone would get the same result and that isn't the case. It is random but generated before the pomp and ceremony of watching it spin and open. I can tell you that Keno in a gaming room is generated in the same way. Every number is drawn in an instant and the video representation you see on screen of each number dropping is glitzy, smoke and mirrors. It is still randomly generated though, just all at once.

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Posted (edited)

13 hours ago, DaivRules said:


That’s definitely statistically possible. Every card gives you the same chance. It doesn’t adjust over time, or for the number of attempts. So, according to your example, there is a 60% chance you’ll get credits. Every card, it’s the same 60% chance. Statistically, there’s no reason why it would be impossible to end up with the thing you always have a 60% chance of ending up with.

 

 

You don't seem to understand how chance works. 60% means you have a 6 in 10 chance that you'll get something, 40% means 4 in 10. If you do 10 spins and always end up with the 6 in 10 and not the 4 in 10, that's statistically impossible, or it's rigged. But to be fair, we don't even know what the percentages are. Might be way lower for non-credits than we think.

Edited by Asimb0mb
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It's definitely random.  You just can't save scum, as others have mentioned.  I've had the roulette five times.  Two were small credits (2000), two were 10K credits and one was a car.

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Its taken until GT7 for people to realise that they're pre-determined upon purchase / received? 

 

This is the precedent for all games who offer this gambling service, Apex, Siege, Counter Strike, Fifa, otherwise you would just re-roll if you didnt like the outcome.

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guys, why is this topic still going on? I mentioned very early in this thread that my first roulettes weren't all just credits, which was the proof that you can win other stuff and it's not predetermined. The discussion should have been over by then ;)

 

3 hours ago, Asimb0mb said:

You don't seem to understand how chance works. 60% means you have a 6 in 10 chance that you'll get something, 40% means 4 in 10. If you do 10 spins and always end up with the 6 in 10 and not the 4 in 10, that's statistically impossible, or it's rigged. But to be fair, we don't even know what the percentages are. Might be way lower for non-credits than we think.

 

If you have a chance 6 in 10 to get something, it does not mean that if you use up 10 tickets that 6 of them will be winners. It's a 6 out of 10 chance for every single ticket individually!
Especially since the outcome of ticket 1 does not influence in any means the outcome of ticket 2. You could open 100 tickets with a 6 out of 10 chance to win something and still never win.

Maybe I can explain it better to you with another example: it is quite rare to be in a plane crash, right? So people that were in a plane crash and survived, think it might never happen to them again because what are the odds of being in a plane crash twice? Well, since plane crash 1 has absolutely no influence on any other plane, the chances that this person gets onto a plane and that plane crashes are exactly the same as before. It's not because there is a, let's say, one in a million chance that your plane crashes and it happens, that then the chances suddenly change to one in two million the next time you go on a plane.

If at a roulette table, the spin lands on the 0, chances that the next spin also lands on 0 are just as big as the spin before it. People like to think that because it landed on 0, there must be less chance for that to happen again. That is not true.


If you flip a coin, there's a 50 percent chance that it lands on heads or tails, right? If you were to flip four heads in a row, a person might believe that the next flip would be more likely to come up with tails rather than heads again. This is incorrect and mathematically provable. The chance of it being heads is always 1/2.
 

https://effectiviology.com/gamblers-fallacy/

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