I calculated the odds for the Head Turner trophy

[Wurstmann69 180]

With the trophy list becoming deprecated soon, there are many people here that still need either a legendary color or pattern or even a celebration to finish their platinum trophy. Yesterday I did the math of the how likely it is to find these in the shop.

 

First off in this calculation I assume that you did not buy a single item before in the shop. Which is unlikely. So in the end the more it Ms you already bought the more likely it will be to get the items that you still need.

 

There are 5 daily shop items. 3 of which are only for items that you can buy with Kudos and 2 that are exclusively for items that require crowns as a currency.

 

I checked the FG Wiki and counted the buyable items manually and found out that there are approximately 450 items which have Kudos as currency and 300 items that require crowns.

 

The numbers of patterns, colors and celebrations that we need for the achievements are as follows:

 

Patterns: 2 for Kudos ; 5 for crowns

Colors: 0 for Kudos ; 8 for crowns

Celebrations: 5 for Kudos ; 3 for crowns

 

I then did the math and came to the result that for each of the three items above there is a chance at around 5% per day to occur:

 

Pattern is 4,6%

Color is 5%

Celebration is 5,3%

 

This means that for example if you still need a pattern and a celebration and you have 45 days left until May 9th, your chances are:

 

(1-(0,953)^45)*(1-(0,947)^45) which is approximately a chance of 80% to get both needed items before the time runs out 

 

Not too bad.

 

As mentioned before this is just the chance if you never bought a single item of the shop.

 

The more you buy - especially in th two crown slots - the more likely it will become to get the items you still need.

 

Good luck!

 

TL;DR: as of today the chances to find the needed items in the daily shop, if you buy a lot of items, are pretty good.

 

At least 90% if you only need a single item and still over 70% if you need three

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Wurstmann69

[israellaks 35]

I hope you are right, mate. Fingers crossed to find the Pattern!

[DarthTerrorize 58]

Never tell me the odds

[Necrown 1]

Hope you are right. Need a Legendary color and a celebration

[Last-_-Judgment 780]

On 25/03/2022 at 7:39 AM, Wurstmann69 said:

 

There are 5 daily shop items. 3 of which are only for items that you can buy with Kudos and 2 that are exclusively for items that require crowns as a currency.

 

 

Pretty sure there is 6 items in the daily shop. What are the new calculations.

[Tombwarrior97 32]

1 hour ago, Last-_-Judgment said:

 

Pretty sure there is 6 items in the daily shop. What are the new calculations.

That is true, there are 4 for Kudos and 2 for Crowns I believe. I am far from good at calculating probability, so I hope someone will

be able to.  

[Wurstmann69 180]

Oh snap! Well in that case add 0,4% to the pattern and iirc 0,7% to the celebration chance per day.

 

That ofc also increases the over time probability a little.

[Troz 2,132]

Thanks, you've given me some hope. Fuck Mediatonic for this. They seriously don't know what they're doing, from the new launcher to tech support. All would be forgiven if they do a legendary item sale some day soon. I just have the pattern left. 90 percent, lets go.

[FoxleyPT89 4]

On 25/03/2022 at 6:39 AM, Wurstmann69 said:

With the trophy list becoming deprecated soon, there are many people here that still need either a legendary color or pattern or even a celebration to finish their platinum trophy. Yesterday I did the math of the how likely it is to find these in the shop.

 

First off in this calculation I assume that you did not buy a single item before in the shop. Which is unlikely. So in the end the more it Ms you already bought the more likely it will be to get the items that you still need.

 

There are 5 daily shop items. 3 of which are only for items that you can buy with Kudos and 2 that are exclusively for items that require crowns as a currency.

 

I checked the FG Wiki and counted the buyable items manually and found out that there are approximately 450 items which have Kudos as currency and 300 items that require crowns.

 

The numbers of patterns, colors and celebrations that we need for the achievements are as follows:

 

Patterns: 2 for Kudos ; 5 for crowns

Colors: 0 for Kudos ; 8 for crowns

Celebrations: 5 for Kudos ; 3 for crowns

 

I then did the math and came to the result that for each of the three items above there is a chance at around 5% per day to occur:

 

Pattern is 4,6%

Color is 5%

Celebration is 5,3%

 

This means that for example if you still need a pattern and a celebration and you have 45 days left until May 9th, your chances are:

 

(1-(0,953)^45)*(1-(0,947)^45) which is approximately a chance of 80% to get both needed items before the time runs out 

 

Not too bad.

 

As mentioned before this is just the chance if you never bought a single item of the shop.

 

The more you buy - especially in th two crown slots - the more likely it will become to get the items you still need.

 

Good luck!

 

TL;DR: as of today the chances to find the needed items in the daily shop, if you buy a lot of items, are pretty good.

 

At least 90% if you only need a single item and still over 70% if you need three

 

So if there are only two items per day that require crowns to buy and I only need one legendary color the best strategy would be to only buy items that require crowns?

[Wurstmann69 180]

1 minute ago, FoxleyPT89 said:

So if there are only two items per day that require crowns to buy and I only need one legendary color the best strategy would be to only buy items that require crowns?

Correct, as there are no legendary colors for Kudos.

[Troz 2,132]

Heres my math, tell me if I'm wrong:

 

700 items in total left (I bought 50).

 

I need a pattern, and there's 7 patterns.

 

700/7 is a 1% chance.

 

How is it a 5ish percent chance every day? Did you do other things to add up to it?

 

EDIT: Never mind. there's 6 items in the shop every day. Duh.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Troz
im stupid lol

[stackloop 0]

Why are people talking about Legendary Celebrations? I thought the trophy only requires:

• Body Colour
• Pattern
• Upper
• Lower

[Lion_Squid 70]

1 hour ago, stackloop said:

Why are people talking about Legendary Celebrations? I thought the trophy only requires:

• Body Colour
• Pattern
• Upper
• Lower

 

You need a celebration for a different trophy, Show Off.

[dieselmanchild 3,532]

I sure hope you’re right. I’m one of the unlucky ones who needs both a pattern and a colour.
 

I’ve bought over 50 items so far for Fashionista, but now I’m at a crossroads. Is it better to save the kudos and crowns I’ve accumulated so I can immediately purchase these items if and when they show in the shop, or do I play Fall Guys endlessly until May 9th mindlessly buying shit hoping to increase my odds.

 

I would encourage everyone to beg support to consider adding a colour & pattern to the featured items before they nuke the trophy list. Considering how rng these items are, this would be super easy for them to do and a fair compromise to give players a month to prepare for them.

[stackloop 0]

7 hours ago, Lion_Squid said:

 

You need a celebration for a different trophy, Show Off.

Right, but you don't specifically need a Legendary one for that - you just need any custom celebration that's not the default. 

[Lion_Squid 70]

3 hours ago, stackloop said:

Right, but you don't specifically need a Legendary one for that - you just need any custom celebration that's not the default. 

 

The OP isn't specifying legendary celebrations. There are only 8 celebrations available via the store.

[dieselmanchild 3,532]

45 minutes ago, Lion_Squid said:

 

The OP isn't specifying legendary celebrations. There are only 8 celebrations available via the store.

Yeah that’s another tough one. The celebrations are rare as it is (I’ve only seen a few so far), but then you still have to actually win an episode with one to pop the trophy. So better hope for an easy event or something. 😕

 

Sending good luck vibes to all my Fall Guys out there. You will get it!!!!

Edited March 29, 2022 by dieselmanchild

[xItsLesterx 1,067]

2 minutes ago, dieselmanchild said:

Yeah that’s another tough one. The celebrations are rare as it is (I’ve only seen a few so far), but then you still have to actually win an episode with one to pop the trophy. So better hope for an easy event or something. 😕

true but with golden goal on right now, if you score the goal, you’re guaranteed to get the celebration animation to your character. 
Already had the trophy but there’s one celebration on the daily items. Perhaps y’all got them too and can pop the trophy

Edited March 29, 2022 by xItsLesterx

[stackloop 0]

1 hour ago, Lion_Squid said:

 

The OP isn't specifying legendary celebrations. There are only 8 celebrations available via the store.

Ah, sorry, that's my bad! Thanks for clarifying.

[dieselmanchild 3,532]

1 hour ago, xItsLesterx said:

true but with golden goal on right now, if you score the goal, you’re guaranteed to get the celebration animation to your character. 
Already had the trophy but there’s one celebration on the daily items. Perhaps y’all got them too and can pop the trophy

Yeah unfortunately Golden Goal is only here for a few days, so hopefully people who need a celebration animation can get one before then.

[Solid Snake 35]

Email mediatonic that they will streamline the shop with the legendary print and color, and this was their response. We already know from another thread that they will be offering a legendary print in the featured shop, hopefully we will see the color soon.

 

Lo siento pero no podemos alterar la tienda ya que se refresca de manera automática y aleatoria para cada jugador.
 
En cuanto a los trofeos, todos los que tienes deslobqueados se transferirán a la nueva lista del nuevo Launcher y la lista antigua desaparecerá junto con el Launcher antiguo después del 9 de mayo, por tanto no tendrás que darte prisa con el resto de trofeos ya que tras esa fecha tendrás una lista.

[dieselmanchild 3,532]

52 minutes ago, Solid Snake said:

Email mediatonic that they will streamline the shop with the legendary print and color, and this was their response. We already know from another thread that they will be offering a legendary print in the featured shop, hopefully we will see the color soon.

I’ve been encouraging as many people as I can to mention this to support with their concerns over the new launcher, and quite a few people have apparently done so. So I think we have a good chance of seeing one if people keep asking them politely. 

[Wurstmann69 180]

9 hours ago, Solid Snake said:

We already know from another thread that they will be offering a legendary print in the featured shop, hopefully we will see the color soon.

 

We do? Where was that mentioned and is it really true or just a rumor?

[postofficebuddy 1,185]

4 minutes ago, Wurstmann69 said:

We do? Where was that mentioned and is it really true or just a rumor?

https://fallguys-db.pages.dev/store 

 

from what I understand this is the dev’s own page so I’m pretty sure it’s official. 

[StickyGlueFTW 34]

2 hours ago, Wurstmann69 said:

We do? Where was that mentioned and is it really true or just a rumor?

 

It was my post. 

 

It is a website of a leaker. They are able to see future shop rotations because when the game is open, it stores data locally. Conveniently, it is very easy to access the data for future shop patterns. It is embedded into the game, it is not a prediction.