The Heat Check Panic Bidding is OUT OF CONTROL. May I suggest a better way forward?

[cornhed]

Fellow collectors.  It seems those of us left collecting cards are beating the doors down for heat check cards at increasingly outrageous prices (over $10k per card now, seriously people?).  This is pure insanity.  It seems, a handful of trophy collectors are out here running the market up on each other which ultimately just increases the amount of grinding/auction house babysitting we are all forced to do exponentially.  I think we are all going to be happy to move on as soon as possible.  So I have a suggestion that I hope people will consider... COLLUSION!  

I think we can all agree the heat check cards are the worst, most utterly useless cards at this point if you are actually trying to play the game.  Pure garbage.  No need to hold onto them once your trophy is achieved, right?  So my suggestion is we all agree to some set price, like $4k-5k that no one bids beyond (kind of a first come first bid thing).  Once you collect your trophy, pay it forward to the rest of the community and dump the heat check cards back onto the market (I do actually see some people doing this already which is so awesome, so thank you to those of you out there).  If we can all agree to pass the same 300-400 heat check cards around, everyone can get this done fast and painlessly.  The current alternative of all of us driving the entire market up on each other night after night is pure lunacy.  

 

I am ~300 cards away and they are almost exclusively heat checks and I cannot bring myself to pay higher prices for these cards than I did for useful, fun to use Galaxy Opal cards.  I shouldn't need to get another $3m+ MT just to collect these useless cards, nor should you (that's roughly 8x more than I have spent on the entire 2500 cards in my collection).  I also think the 3400 available card number is a gross overestimation (once you take out unavailable cards and cards over ~$50k this number probably falls to under 3200.  (E.g. Spotlight Iguodala's Andrew Bogut goes for $150k+, so that card is effectively unattainable along with the 3 rewards cards for completing that series.  or Wade's Beasley or Dirk's Finley, so on and so on).    

Please consider the idea.  It will be hard to get in front of everyone's eyes, but I have to assume a lot of the hunters use this site, and as far as I can tell there isn't a MASSIVE population of us out there chasing our tails.   

[ElevExplorer64]

Well said. I'm honestly trying to get this trophy before the servers shut down in December 2021, but the ridiculously high prices for cards makes me want to quit sometimes. Honestly, I'm not going to go for the MyCareer trophies unless I can get this one, because I just don't think it's worth it. I have too many other, better games in my backlog.

[grimydawg___]

The prices for cards are 10k+ on 2K19, too ?‍♂️Just keep at it.

[Royze]

Once people stop buying cards at those ridiculous prices, they should drop eventually.  I've accepted that the last few cards are gonna cost me an average of 10k. Sucks  but I don't see an alternative 

[grimydawg___]

53 minutes ago, Royze said:

Once people stop buying cards at those ridiculous prices, they should drop eventually.  I've accepted that the last few cards are gonna cost me an average of 10k. Sucks  but I don't see an alternative 

No, they won't.  The same thing happened in 2K19

[kevinyang82]

It's tough as there's other players that aren't trophy hunters, but are playing the AH to flip cards.

 

Soon as you put a card at a low price, they're going to snipe them and put them back up at the 10k range.

 

It's not just HC cards, even silvers are now going for anywhere between 2k-10k.

[RasputinCZ]

Someone was already suggesting similiar solution few days ago on this forum. I would be certainly up for this if there is actually enough players willing to help each other out this way. As @kevinyang82 pointed out, it would be quite difficult to pull it of so that other active players on AH dont snipe it instead. Maybe with proper coordination via discord or something and posting up the cards slowly would help. I am currently sitting on 79 heat cards out of 441 and like everyone here knows, the prices have been only increasing and I doubt they will ever stabilize/decrease..

Just 30 min ago I managed to snipe HC Siakam for around 8k, of course few months ago considering that snipe would be hilarious. But that is where we are now.

 

Hoewever, I would love to participate in this if we find someone with cards willing to help us out. 

 

Take care everyone

[Royze]

1 hour ago, grimydawg___ said:

No, they won't.  The same thing happened in 2K19

Yikes.. o well... in for a penny..... i'm still gonna complete this, however long it takes

[Roundtoad]

I'm currently at ~2500 cards with around 170 HCs. Most of the HCs I don't have are being priced at 15k (and no way in hell am I going to start buying at that price), I am lucky to find any HCs at 10k. At this point, I don't know if prices will go down anytime soon, even if everyone in these forums colluded and stopped buying at those prices, the outside player-base / non-trophy hunters will still be trying to flip cards. Unfortunately, this is a variable we can't control, as it only takes 1 person to steal everything and re-list at exorbitant prices.

 

If we were all to collude, it would be best to wait until most of the non-trophy hunters faded into next gen? as it would be easier to influence the prices in the market if the majority of the people listing cards in the AH were people like us willing to share cards around - one important thing to note is not to lock in collections, for those going this route.

 

Honestly though, there's not a lot we can do at this point but to buy ANY card we don't own regardless if HC or not. Personally, if I can't find a HC in the 8K - 10K range, I just buy any card I don't have at that range, but most importantly targeting cards that cannot otherwise be obtained in packs through the token or MT markets.

 

This is our bum life now, well for the foreseeable future at least.

 

9 hours ago, ElevExplorer64 said:

Well said. I'm honestly trying to get this trophy before the servers shut down in December 2021, but the ridiculously high prices for cards makes me want to quit sometimes. Honestly, I'm not going to go for the MyCareer trophies unless I can get this one, because I just don't think it's worth it. I have too many other, better games in my backlog.

 

Exactly. 

[Malex595]

guys, it's a hell of a grind either way...

 

i suppose several of you could note down in excel or something which cards you all have, but i doubt that between all of you, you have enough for a full - 2900 unique cards collection. it's a long shot, but it could work with a lot of commitment and good will. But still, even you sync up when you sell your cards on the market to each other, there are two things to consider: even with a buy now price of 500k, you will still need a lot of money to buy all those cards that are absent from your collection, and more importantly, you will need to accept that someone outside your group could snipe those cards. So, it's far from easy...

 

there is still ways to earn money from the AH. just accept the fact that you cannot have one filter that will work forever. You will need to observe the market, and adjust your strategy accordingly. Yes, there are fewer cards on the market now, than there were several months ago, but you will always be able to buy most of them. This will however require you spending significant amount of time on the AH. Personally, i spent roughly 120-150h just on sniping in the past two months...Is that a crazy amount of time? well.....just depends on how badly you want this platinum...

[cornhed]

Thanks everyone for your input.  I want to address two "outside" groups that were brought up; nonhunters and snipers.  I think non trophy hunters are not going to be willing to pay 10k for heat check cards as they are literally useless cards at this point (No more season for them to heat up and you can get better cards way cheaper if you are building a squad).  This will only work with heat check cards though I think, bc this group will be looking out for useful cards.  I don't think they are an issue in heat check coordination. 

 

Now as for the other snipers... Sniping and flipping is a very sensitive strategy.  Flipping cards only works if people buy the marked up cards (lol at the dope who posts PD gary payton or PD devin booker for 100k every single day only to watch them never be bought).  For example, if you buy all these heat check cards at 8k expecting to sell them for 10k and NO ONE BUYS ANY OF THEM, well not only do you now have cards you have to discount massively, you lost a ton of MT doing it.  You also can only hold 50 cards in your auction house so the way you stop someone is not buying cards at ridiculous prices, forcing them to sit on worthless inventory that they either must lower the price on or they cannot snipe anymore.  If anything this is a call for patience.

As for the reselling of cards after you complete your collection,  I agree we can't just put low buy nows bc someone will try to snipe the rest of us.  Probably just got to put them out for a 500 bid and no buy now, hoping that we can all be patient and not drive prices back up. 

I do not think we need for formally coordinate about the reselling, but if we all agree to stop paying beyond a reasonable price as a large enough group I think we can drive the market back lower.  Then we just have to have faith in people putting their heat checks back to market.  I promise to put my heat checks back to market in the end.  Maybe even if we all just agree to do that it will relieve some of the panic over fears of scarcity and can stabilize the market.  Again I only really see this applying to heat check.  

 

One last note, thank you @RoundToad for pointing out not to collect the 25 token reward in heat check otherwise you will be unable to resell your cards later.  

[djb5f]

8 hours ago, kevinyang82 said:

It's tough as there's other players that aren't trophy hunters, but are playing the AH to flip cards.

 

Soon as you put a card at a low price, they're going to snipe them and put them back up at the 10k range.

 

It's not just HC cards, even silvers are now going for anywhere between 2k-10k.

Exactly.  The OP’s strategy would not work.  People know the market and would just buy them and flip to make a profit.

[cornhed]

16 minutes ago, djb5f said:

Exactly.  The OP’s strategy would not work.  People know the market and would just buy them and flip to make a profit.

 

I strongly disagree with this sentiment in regards to heat check cards (I tried to address this in the post above you).  If you are playing AH for profit the heat check market is too thin and fragmented as to be regularly repeatable at this point, there is lower hanging fruit elsewhere.  The reason it may work at the moment is bc people continue driving up the HC card prices out of fear, which just brings in more AH vultures.   In the scenario where we the collectors stop buying 10k heat check cards, who exactly are these cards being flipped to?  Once the profit disappears so do the market vultures.  Furthermore if you are hawking the AH to scrape up <1k worth of MT with each flip, I'd suggest you reevaluate how you use you free time in life lol.     

But DJB, while you are here I see you have completed your collection, mind taking a few minutes and dropping some heat checks back to market? ?

[Malex595]

in my opinion, with every passing day, there will be fewer and fewer players in 2k20, thus dropping the amount of cards in circulation. And since there will always be demand for HC cards, i see no reason for their price to ever get lower than it already is. this is basic supply & demand.

[cornhed]

40 minutes ago, Malex595 said:

in my opinion, with every passing day, there will be fewer and fewer players in 2k20, thus dropping the amount of cards in circulation. And since there will always be demand for HC cards, i see no reason for their price to ever get lower than it already is. this is basic supply & demand.

 

Totally agree.  I am hoping we collectively can slow that inevitability some is all.  Again if people paid it forward and turned around and put the heat check cards back in the AH once they didnt need them, it would stabilize the supply side some. That alone would go a very long way to saving everybody a massive amount of time.

I truly believe people are underestimating the impact a little coordination can have on the supply/demand equation.  

[djb5f]

2 hours ago, cornhed said:

 

I strongly disagree with this sentiment in regards to heat check cards (I tried to address this in the post above you).  If you are playing AH for profit the heat check market is too thin and fragmented as to be regularly repeatable at this point, there is lower hanging fruit elsewhere.  The reason it may work at the moment is bc people continue driving up the HC card prices out of fear, which just brings in more AH vultures.   In the scenario where we the collectors stop buying 10k heat check cards, who exactly are these cards being flipped to?  Once the profit disappears so do the market vultures.  Furthermore if you are hawking the AH to scrape up <1k worth of MT with each flip, I'd suggest you reevaluate how you use you free time in life lol.     

But DJB, while you are here I see you have completed your collection, mind taking a few minutes and dropping some heat checks back to market? 

Sold everything off a long time ago that was not locked.

 

I think where you go astray is in thinking that your message is getting out to all trophy hunters or those in pursuit of this trophy.  It will get to well less than 5% of the audience.  
 

There will continue to be people (both trophy hunters and those looking to profit) who will be all over 5K HC cards and re-list for easy profits at 9-10K.  Even if somehow they did not re-sell for that (they would), they would absolutely be gobbled up at 7950 BIN.  
 

I think you are being too idealistic that you can get your message out to everyone buying these cards and that they would listen.  Just not practical.

[cornhed]

25 minutes ago, djb5f said:

I think where you go astray is in thinking that your message is getting out to all trophy hunters or those in pursuit of this trophy.  It will get to well less than 5% of the audience.  

Thanks for raising that point, and thank you for selling back what you could already.  I do generally agree this is a problem.  I would think most trophy hunters are familiar with this site though as it is such an amazing resource.  I was hoping over the course of time we'd catch the eye of at least half the dedicated.  The truth probably lies somewhere between us.  

 

Since maybe March I've been playing a couple hours a day when I'm around and for the most part its been enjoyable (though with progress slowing it is becoming much less so).  I will continue to do so for as much of the next year as I need to, with the thought in mind that others with a similar approach can find ourselves a happy medium where we can maintain that cadence without ever having to give in to panic bidding or the sum of all fears... Missing out entirely.  (EDIT: I bring this up to point out I do not expect this to magically change today but hope to kinda herd a willing portion of us over time).

 

Those with experience in 2k19... There has been mention the prices stay high, has the problem of no availability at all ever become an issue?


 

Edited October 3, 2020 by cornhed

[grimydawg___]

Yes, the availability is low in 2k19

[cornhed]

16 minutes ago, grimydawg___ said:

Yes, the availability is low in 2k19

 

Low or nonexistent?  I can live with low since we basically there already haha

[AJ_-_808]

4 hours ago, cornhed said:

Furthermore if you are hawking the AH to scrape up <1k worth of MT with each flip, I'd suggest you reevaluate how you use you free time in life lol.     

 

This is a comment you may wish to retract.  People say that about video games, and more so, about trophy hunters, so that's kindof the pot calling the kettle black there.

 

 

Anyway, I think you may be underestimating people that would be willing to drive the prices up just to keep the platinum rarer, similar to the fight night belts 

[grimydawg___]

9 minutes ago, AJ_-_808 said:

 

This is a comment you may wish to retract.  People say that about video games, and more so, about trophy hunters, so that's kindof the pot calling the kettle black there.

 

 

Anyway, I think you may be underestimating people that would be willing to drive the prices up just to keep the platinum rarer, similar to the fight night belts 

The 2k series ain't Fight Night... 

[cornhed]

39 minutes ago, AJ_-_808 said:

 

This is a comment you may wish to retract.  People say that about video games, and more so, about trophy hunters, so that's kindof the pot calling the kettle black there.

 

 

Not at all.  Video games provide a lot of utility to people for various reasons.  I was more trying to point out (IMO) it's a waste of one's free time to spend a lot of effort working the AH for so little gain when there are several other easier and more enjoyable ways to gain larger amounts of rewards.  

[AJ_-_808]

7 hours ago, grimydawg___ said:

The 2k series ain't Fight Night... 

No, it isn't. It was just an example of someone putting themselves first at the expense of other people's enjoyment.  

It still applies 

 

7 hours ago, cornhed said:

 

Not at all.  Video games provide a lot of utility to people for various reasons.  I was more trying to point out (IMO) it's a waste of one's free time to spend a lot of effort working the AH for so little gain when there are several other easier and more enjoyable ways to gain larger amounts of rewards.  

 

Unless for some reason, they enjoy playing the AH, the same way some people enjoy collecting trophies more than actually playing the game.  Anyway, this is going off course.  Good luck with your card hunt

[grimydawg___]

6 hours ago, AJ_-_808 said:

No, it isn't. It was just an example of someone putting themselves first at the expense of other people's enjoyment.  

It still applies 

 

No, it's not.  You don't even play NBA 2K.  So, you don't know what you're talking about.  OP simply hasn't put in enough time and effort.  There have been folks here who literally started the game months after him and they got the trophy weeks later simply by grinding.  Perhaps folks can wait a few more months, coordinate with some people and get the cards they need that way.  I don't think all challenges were played.  So, that's more of an opportunity to play and get more cards.

Edited October 4, 2020 by grimydawg___

[AJ_-_808]

3 hours ago, grimydawg___ said:

No, it's not.  You don't even play NBA 2K.  So, you don't know what you're talking about.  OP simply hasn't put in enough time and effort.

You dont actually know if I played this or not just because it isnt on this account.  But ok dude, whatever you say. 

 

You feel the AH market is stable based on previous games, OP feels the prices are going up and is trying to organize people to lower prices. I mentioned that s/he shouldn't disregard people that might purposely do the opposite for their own reasons/amusement.  Hell, for all we know, someone could read this thread and trojan horse themself into a position to steal a bunch of cards from these guys.

 

I'm not interested in arguing this with you any further. Agree to disagree if you will, but I'm stepping out.