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Microsoft is buying Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion [FTC sues to stop - CMA issues updated preliminary findings]


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16 hours ago, AJ_-_808 said:

About those revenge fantasies... I've started wondering if a result from this would see Microsoft cut server support for Bethesda games still running on Playstation - ESO and Fallout 76 being two of the biggest still being supported

Microsoft wouldn't risk the legal action that would come with it plus it would be fodder if they're brought to court again.

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No sane judge is gonna grant this. Sony is right when they’re saying it’s irrelevant and MS is just harassing them. MS knows things aren’t going well, so they’re getting increasingly desperate.
 

https://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2023/02/11/microsot-activision-playstation-ftc-court-battle-ugly/

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4 minutes ago, Z1MZUM said:

Bobby is a repulsive man and the more gamers spend the time to learn more about him the better. Might even sway a few people towards wanting Microsoft to be successful.

The lesser of two evils isn't a good enough answer when there are other ways to remove him that don't entail damaging the industry 

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6 hours ago, Z1MZUM said:

Bobby is a repulsive man and the more gamers spend the time to learn more about him the better. Might even sway a few people towards wanting Microsoft to be successful.

 

Activision itself has certainly been trying to parlay that and its worked to the extent that Microsoft supporters will repeat it, but as I put in my thread it is simply a false narrative. Even if it wasn't, as @AJ_-_808 put, it ain't worth damaging gaming in the process. 

 

The truth of the matter is Kotick is currently at Activision because of Microsoft. If he continues at Microsoft after this deal however it goes, it will be because of Microsoft. By getting behind this deal and putting their PR machine at work they managed to eliminate much of the heat that Kotick had that had him at best a few months away from having to resign. Many will forget but the talk before this deal was that Kotick was close to resigning as the bad press was simply too bad and only getting worse. Microsoft saved him and as I've said previously, I don't believe they'd instantly remove him the moment they got the company anyway. Company policy at Microsoft for decades has been that as long as guys are successful they can keep their jobs regardless of how they act, and say what you will about Kotick but he is a successful man.

 

As for why this deal wouldn't be worth Kotick going. Kotick is one CEO at one admittedly large company. Developers can always do what they were doing before this deal and try to force Kotick out. If that isn't possible then they can always leave and work elsewhere, getting away from it. Had Microsoft invested this money they want to spend here into brand new studios they could have created jobs that Activision employees could have moved to. Microsoft succeeding here and continuing their buying spree as they've straight up bragged about previously? You can't get away from that if it happens. Microsoft is an infamously monopolistic company that yes, doesn't hold a monopoly in gaming, their supporters aren't wrong there, but they are certainly attempting to buy their way towards one. Buying up companies is also only 1 part of it as they are also taking massive losses (funded by their actual successful businesses, made successful by their monopolistic practises by the way), more than ever before at this point, in an attempt to destroy the current way of business to shift it to a form of business that their competitors simply cannot compete in as they can't absorb massive losses for decades if need be as Microsoft can and has.

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Its been revealed that I wasn't wrong when I said Microsoft wanted to know every word spoken at Sony in the last decade. Turns out they are also demanding to see all the information relating to... VR. What does Microsoft buying Activision have to do with VR? Microsoft supporters, being as puzzled as everyone else but unable to call out Microsoft seem to be reaching for this being some plot by Microsoft to expose some manner of console VR monopoly that Sony has and that will somehow help Microsoft on getting the deal done. For a start, even if Sony was out there kneecapping VR developers if they don't support the PSVR, once again, two wrongs don't make a right. 

 

Its all very stupid but I will further break it down. Does Sony have a console VR monopoly? Considering they're the only console with one then naturally that would be correct. Microsoft has no console VR effort and their wider VR effort that could have possibly later been used for it was scrapped not that long ago. In short them failing in VR has zero to do with Sony. Has Sony closed anyone off to VR? No. Has Microsoft? Ironically yes. Bethesda was a company with a keen interest in VR and if Microsoft hadn't bought them would have no doubt tried to get some stuff on PSVR, but now being under Microsoft and not allowed to do such work are closed off from console VR, and considering I've not heard of any VR projects (could have missed it) they're possibly blocked off from VR entirely. So if you think about it, if we really must talk about VR in relation to this case, then this is simply another reason why Microsoft should not get further buyouts. Any company they buyout with VR plans will instantly have them scrapped by Microsoft which hurts VR.

 

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There is also something going around the Microsoft supporter camp that they're all getting high off. When this started Microsoft flew to Japan and asked to see Sony. Sony refused to see them. Now all this time later with Microsoft as desperate as they've ever been, Sony has flown to Washington where Microsoft is based. This is off a random article by some guy nobody has ever heard of that it turns out is a big Microsoft supporter. Nothing confirming that Sony has met with Microsoft, simply some important Sony people were in Washington so naturally they must have met Microsoft and naturally it also must mean that Sony is ready to surrender to Microsoft. Microsoft isn't flailing around angry and panicking, they're actually coolly doing business and it is Sony that has gotten on its knees. The narratives that these guys cook up to get away from the fact of Microsoft's arrogance and incompetence throughout this process. Perhaps if Sony is meeting with Microsoft it is because they're having quite the heated spat over Microsoft wanting to see so much of Sony's information that it would not be shocking if Microsoft was also demanding nude photographs of Sony's employees. Perhaps Sony has decided to humour Microsoft so Microsoft can't later say that Sony simply would not listen to what they wanted to say during this very key time. Or perhaps they're visiting some companies they own in Washington like you know, the recently acquired Bungie.

 

According to this source, Microsoft is apparently doing the thing I joked months back which is going from 3 to 5 to 10 and ultimately to infinity! On top of that they'll also devest Blizzard, the least important part of what they want to buy. This seems... fantastical. Like what a guy wanting attention would put out there knowing a lot of Microsoft supporters would flock to it. If you asked a Microsoft supporter to come up with the best deal possible for Microsoft that involved a structural remedy then this would be it. Not to say that Microsoft won't be trying to put that forward themselves, but I don't see why regulators would buy this as a solution. Beyond these contracts, especially if they were a ridiculous infinity contract, being possible to break on some manner of technicality, but they'd be giving Sony special treatment and on top of that it wouldn't in anyway help any possible new entrants to the market. We'll see soon enough how truthful any of this stuff is.

 

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With that silliness out of the way. We've gotten further confirmation that the big player companies out there beyond Sony have been against this deal, in fact more were against it than for it (I was right again). All of these companies also agree that Nintendo doesn't closely compete with the rest of the console market, but as we've already found out Microsoft themselves have said as such but some of their supporters simply will not get the message. Additionally the EU objections are about Cloud apparently which if so might mean that they like the CMA don't believe behavioural remedies will cut the mustard. If the FTC, CMA, and EU all hammer this deal into the ground maybe it might finally get through to Microsoft supporters that this deal is terrible and is being rightly destroyed... or they'll just huff some gas and start saying that all three bodies are corrupt and bought by Sony to be against Microsoft. You know, the company that has been in trouble for bribing people.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-microsoft-settlement-idUSKCN1UH1P3

https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/25/22995144/microsoft-foreign-corrupt-practices-bribery-whistleblower-contracting

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14 hours ago, Rozalia1 said:

 

Activision itself has certainly been trying to parlay that and its worked to the extent that Microsoft supporters will repeat it, but as I put in my thread it is simply a false narrative. Even if it wasn't, as @AJ_-_808 put, it ain't worth damaging gaming in the process. 

 

This man has damaged Activision and gaming beyond repair to many gamers minds already. Microsoft won't want to keep a tarnished name after the deal (If it happens), there are too many gamers that think well beyond the last few months.

 

I come from a background of Competitive gaming and been following the Activision saga for over a decade which covers many topics including rape and suicide. It's just a different story every few months for these guys, Bobby is just a bus driver thinking he can pilot a plane with tickets that slowly drip the full ticket price. Enjoying his $200 million bonuses that he must clearly need for himself as Californian staff need a second job just to make ends meet.

 

In Short I really don't care what happens to Activision, Of course I'm not keen with MS buying up competition but on this case I'm not bothered.

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That Microsoft supporter I linked on here previously rustled up some other fellow supporters and destroyed this new narrative of Sony meeting Microsoft, though they are so drugged up that they actually think they've helped the narrative's case. 

 

They found that a plane Sony people were on travelled to Washington on February 6th. Nothing about them going to Microsoft while there when it could have simply been to Bungie (who are newly acquired and have an expansion releasing) or others. The date is also bad in itself because when this started the idea was Sony was meeting with Microsoft right now, not a week and a half ago, but its much worse than that. On February 7th Microsoft & Activision both had their public whines in full flow which involved attacking Sony as a vile barbarian that western regulators needed to help stop, not help. On February 8th the CMA report released which has put this deal hanging on by a thread. As such... even if this event happened on the February 6th (not impossible, but I would think doubtful), clearly nothing must have come out of it if Microsoft & Activision did those disgusting attacks against Sony (and others) literally the day after. Furthermore Kotick straight up said on the 7th that Sony wasn't meeting with them or returning their calls so... having a meeting and then the next day accusing the other party of not meeting them... I mean this is Microsoft/Activision who have shown shockingly bad behaviour in regards to the truth throughout this deal, but that would be next level stuff which would only further help make them look completely untrustworthy to regulators.

 

7 hours ago, Z1MZUM said:

This man has damaged Activision and gaming beyond repair to many gamers minds already. Microsoft won't want to keep a tarnished name after the deal (If it happens), there are too many gamers that think well beyond the last few months.

 

I come from a background of Competitive gaming and been following the Activision saga for over a decade which covers many topics including rape and suicide. It's just a different story every few months for these guys, Bobby is just a bus driver thinking he can pilot a plane with tickets that slowly drip the full ticket price. Enjoying his $200 million bonuses that he must clearly need for himself as Californian staff need a second job just to make ends meet.

 

In Short I really don't care what happens to Activision, Of course I'm not keen with MS buying up competition but on this case I'm not bothered.

 

If so then why is Activision stronger than ever? As I said in my post, Kotick was certainly in trouble before but Microsoft has smoothed it all over. They successfully put forward the idea that for this deal to happen without issue that Kotick needed to remain on and people needed to calm down... and they largely did. Note however that Kotick and crew haven't stopped their own efforts to crush those who oppose them within the company, Microsoft certainly haven't gotten them to hold back.

 

The time to get Kotick out was in the past when everything was popping off and they should have ignored whatever Microsoft was saying and kept pushing. They didn't and this will come off as cruel I know, but Kotick ending up winning and eliminating his enemies within the company would be something they have only themselves to blame for. Like that union that has backed Microsoft in this that reportedly the FTC mocked as fools, the people were foolish enough to trust (and they continue to do so) Microsoft. Who by the way I have no doubts would if they got this deal, in the inevitable job losses that follow such mergers, conveniently get rid of identified problem workers.

 

Now as I have said before, I certainly don't rule out that on this deal failing that the workers might be able to cause enough trouble to force Kotick out. It will however be a much harder fight as Kotick has had a year to destroy the worst of his enemies, a year which included the backing of the Microsoft PR machine to help clean up his name a bit (just look at him going on TV without issue and being respected by everyone). The only thing Kotick likely fears at this point is Sony ignoring his pleas of "It was just business, nothing personal" and whatever deals he offers in apology and deciding to pay him back for his attacks and putting it out there that Kotick has to go.

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Today is the day that Microsoft meet with the EU and others to try and get this deal through. Sony being the main opponent to this deal has been granted double the time that other third parties to this deal get, to counter Microsoft.

 

Microsoft's opener from Brad Smith today was to post the Nintendo deal again. More worthwhile than that Microsoft has grovelled and surrendered to Nvidia that all Xbox PC games (which would include Activision if they got it) will now come to Nvidia's service... I like this because if the deal still dies then unlike the Nintendo thing I would assume Microsoft still has to do. They then began telling everyone what losers they are compared to Sony as they have done since this has started, because incompetence means deals should just get waved through apparently (also what happened to MAU being the only important figure and that they're ahead of Sony on which means they're actually beating Sony? Oh yeah, that was all lies they've now discarded as it doesn't help their case). They're also saying that it isn't realistic or reasonable for regulators to want them to divest Activision which is nice if they're fully telling the truth on not being willing and so that means the deal if rejected simply dies and they don't try to at least get Blizzard/King, which were according to Microsoft the real gems in the crown of this deal and yet curiously don't want to buy if they don't come with CoD. Microsoft also has a document all ready to go for Sony to sign right there on the spot which... wow, just a terrible look.

 

Also... the wording from Microsoft seems to imply they will put all of their Xbox games on the Switch which would certainly be big news... but it could be the usual Microsoft duplicity though where they later say they just meant Minecraft and CoD though.

 

Also Activision Blizzard once again is opening its mouth and attacking Sony.

 

Quote

"Activision Blizzard has accused Sony of simply trying to "protect its two-decade dominance in video games", and believes the proposed merger will enhance competition and "create greater opportunities" for workers"

 

Its all very strange. There are ways to argue this case and not attack Sony, but they're just full in on doing so. 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/microsoft-willing-to-address-concerns-to-save-69-billion-deal

 

There has been word from a reporter that the talk of putting all their current and future games on Nintendo is likely a mistake, and Brad Smith meant that just for Nvidia. This report says what I believe is the case too, Microsoft as everyone (including supporters) knew was lying regarding Mobile and King and this deal is all about CoD. As such they want to pass this deal with only behavioural remedies which can only be good news to me as it means that a failure means they'll buy nothing.

 

On a side note. I very much doubt regulators appreciate Microsoft's tactics thus far which is to use PR to try and force them to go with Microsoft. The idea with all this stuff Microsoft is doing is so they can claim that regulators (and Sony) denied millions (I believe they've used hundreds today) of gamers access to so many games. In essence deny us and our PR portrays you as bad guys.

Edited by Rozalia1
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This look becomes worse and worse every time Microsoft employees open their mouth, they just keep putting their foot in it with stupid statements, and it really does reek of desperation. Nintendo signing may have something to do with games on the Switch online service like Goldeneye 007 and Banjo Kazooie etc, and I'm sure they have had a good relationship with Microsoft, so it does not surprise me they are for it.

 

It really looks like they are just begging for this deal to cross the line and having the contract for Sony at this press conference that is pathetic on their part it looks stupid, and I hope this makes the regulators think even more about throwing this deal out because it looks petty and desperate on Microsoft's side. They need to control their employees, lol.

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31 minutes ago, TheRetroManiac said:

This look becomes worse and worse every time Microsoft employees open their mouth, they just keep putting their foot in it with stupid statements, and it really does reek of desperation. Nintendo signing may have something to do with games on the Switch online service like Goldeneye 007 and Banjo Kazooie etc, and I'm sure they have had a good relationship with Microsoft, so it does not surprise me they are for it.

 

It really looks like they are just begging for this deal to cross the line and having the contract for Sony at this press conference that is pathetic on their part it looks stupid, and I hope this makes the regulators think even more about throwing this deal out because it looks petty and desperate on Microsoft's side. They need to control their employees, lol.

 

I agree. They're out there on their knees begging Sony to allow this through when even if Sony were to come to the table (no reason to, if the deal goes through they'll have to give whatever they gave Nintendo to Sony)... that might not matter to regulators anyway.

 

That image with Brad Smith next to the pie chart of them having 20% to Sony's 80% in Europe also looked really sad. Not only does it expose their obvious lies that they don't care about console sales and their higher MAU (recently exposed as a lie) is the thing that really matters, but damn what it means for the future. Sony is only doing better against Microsoft as time goes on so that 80/20 has the potential to start reaching Japan levels (96/4) in time. We can certainly see why Microsoft has hid console sales for a long time and that estimates out there are likely incorrect to a good degree.

 

 

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While I still seriously doubt this will change the final outcome, it's been kind of nice watching Microsoft have to squirm and not just get their way handed to them on a silver platter like in the past. They only have themselves to blame for announcing this on the same day the new FTC head said deals like this would be under more scrutiny...and their increasing desperation and stupidity trying to get it through. I doubt the regulators are as dumb as MS seems to think they are. They're acting like a bunch of hysterical drama queens. After this is over, regardless if it succeeds or fails, maybe MS will think twice before they try to buy someone else. One can hope. 

Edited by MidnightDragon
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9 hours ago, MidnightDragon said:

While I still seriously doubt this will change the final outcome, it's been kind of nice watching Microsoft have to squirm and not just get their way handed to them on a silver platter like in the past. They only have themselves to blame for announcing this on the same day the new FTC head said deals like this would be under more scrutiny...and their increasing desperation and stupidity trying to get it through. I doubt the regulators are as dumb as MS seems to think they are. They're acting like a bunch of hysterical drama queens. After this is over, regardless if it succeeds or fails, maybe MS will think twice before they try to buy someone else. One can hope. 

 

Watching Microsoft state that all of their previous boasts were lies and that they suck over and over again has been pure entertainment. Smith, Spencer, and others in management over there have been getting caught out with statements they made years back again and again. The gaming media and their supporters may well be able to act like those stupid things weren't said, but the regulators take note of them.

 

They just might yes. One of Lina Khan's statements implied that her FTC would have taken issue with their Bethesda purchase, so if Microsoft on failing here thinks they can just quickly go buy up some single digit billion valued companies then they likely are going to have a shock. Ironically even though Sony is far more successful in gaming than Microsoft, I think regulators are far nicer to them on this matter as they're not a "big tech company" obviously using their money elsewhere to try and dominate a different market (if Xbox was a normal company it'd have folded every single generation they've taken part in), while Sony and Nintendo run good ships and don't need huge infusions of cash from elsewhere to compete. Sony is also not trying to completely destroy the current way of business to transition it to one where they'll be able to bleed out the competition like Microsoft is.

 

9 hours ago, majob said:

Talking heads are giving the deal a 50-50 chance at this point so it's safe to speculate the deal is just as likely to fail as it is likely to pass scrutiny. 

 

I would put zero stock in that. A lot of these so called experts have really been getting shown up, especially due to the CMA (many are American centric), as not knowing what they're going on about. Microsoft's chances at this point due to the CMA are at 10-20% tops (not being willing to divest CoD is such a dealbreaker). It's certainly not impossible, but a hard job to pull off at this point.

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Today and tomorrow is when Microsoft and Activision make another push, this time against the CMA. Sadly unlike with the EU we likely won't get an embarrassing display from Microsoft at the same time it goes on.

 

Since the last time stuff has happened there has been two notable events within the Microsoft supporter camp. The first was a case the EU dealt with regarding Meta which they believe implies that the EU will look at Microsoft's famed 10 year deals and say "please go ahead sir" (not impossible as the EU is the easiest to get by, but ultimately irrelevant), which will in turn pressure the CMA to surrender to Microsoft and accept also. The second however, and this was information that was out there 2 weeks ago and I knew a good deal of already (read the whole initial paper and a good amount of the larger one) but even some was news to me, was an analysis of the CMA's full document which dismantles Microsoft again and again. Supporters for example talk about the CMA "leaving the door open" to behavioural remedies even though there is a comment that seems to make it pretty clear that isn't the case... well, there is another comment from the CMA which makes it even clearer that they think they're meaningless as while not officially deciding on Microsoft's 10 year deals, the CMA basically says that getting these deals with Nintendo and Valve that Microsoft's makes a big deal out of don't matter as Nintendo and Valve aren't even factored into all of this, so why would getting a deal with them matter?

 

Another matter shown in the documents was internal ABK records show that Microsoft's arguments that they wouldn't be taking away CoD/Activision titles on subscriptions & Cloud away from others as ABK hates them (subscriptions/Cloud) and has no intention of going in on them in any serious manner, is simply false. As we know Microsoft has pretty much been commanding Activision in this case (they have Activision say the more aggressive stuff they want to say but know will look bad) so I very much doubt this is surprise to Microsoft, they simply once again decided to brazenly lie.

 

What was news to me which I found funny was how Microsoft's famed lawyer army, apparently the best lawyers in the world that will tear the regulators apart with ease so no need to worry however bad this all might look... submitted evidence for the case 6 weeks over the deadline. How do you have that many lawyers and all that money and are that over a deadline? I suppose the joke about their lawyers being about as competent as Xbox management was correct. Poor Microsoft and their low powered lawyers, seemingly no match for Sony's smaller number of high powered economists.

 

Another interesting wrinkle was Minecraft, which Microsoft and its supporters bring up endlessly. It wasn't said straight up but to me it sort of implied that the only reason Microsoft kept supporting that on other platforms as they have is as a result of how Minecraft was set up when they bought it, whereupon people purchased a lifetime license. As such discontinuing it/not giving it updates on other platforms could well have lead to some problems for Microsoft hence them keeping it all going as it was. The point in regards to the case being that Minecraft doesn't show a case where Microsoft was a good boy as ultimately Microsoft was forced into being a good boy and didn't do it by their own initiative. On the other hand the cases of Microsoft being a bad boy on these matter is long. I personally find that interesting as I've never bought that Microsoft made that choice on their own and that something from previous management must have forced the issue, who are undoubtedly NDA'ed up, so Microsoft can freely lie about the matter.

Edited by Rozalia1
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There was something that caused a bit of stir.

 

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/90516/report-microsoft-may-sell-xbox-if-activision-merger-fails/index.html

 

The article is good in some places by citing Spencer's own words, which he now contradicts by saying that if the deal fails then it is no big deal for Xbox (note, you don't start talking like that if the deal isn't in serious danger). I'm not a fan of many things being so obviously not the case but the article simply accepting because Phil Spencer, a notorious liar has said so. In no world is Microsoft ahead of Nintendo, zero. Sony and Nintendo run well oiled profitable businesses that have only grown even though the talk of them being doomed has been around ages (Microsoft supporters conveniently forget how often they have partook in that). Xbox meanwhile hides its numbers in shame because the reality is they're very likely losing and losing big year after year.

 

Microsoft supporters naturally claim that people are unfairly against them and that this narrative of Xbox folding if things don't go their way is simply something made up whole cloth from people who hate Xbox. Yet, if so then what about Spencer putting it out there that without Mobile, which he claims this deal is really about, then having Xbox is "untenable". Why does Spencer even address this if its simply made up nonsense from haters?

 

 

Not to mention that Microsoft's own supporters themselves have used the narrative to support why regulators should allow the deal through because without it Microsoft "can't compete" (note that Microsoft has no god given right to market share parity with Sony), then they'll drop out and everything will become worse because evil empire Sony will then double their prices and whatever else. People wouldn't simply go to PC in response and Nintendo wouldn't even bother attempting to swoop in and getting dissatisfied PlayStation gamers. Heck, speaking of Nintendo there is even the narrative that without Microsoft around then Sony, again the evil empire, will simply finally flex all of their might towards Nintendo and just like that Nintendo, the unquestionably greatest video game company out there (even if someone doesn't like their stuff, this is simply a fact) will collapse to Sony. I don't think Sony could manage that even if they were somehow allowed to restrict Nintendo to only their 1st party stuff.

 

The point is that Microsoft and its supporters have themselves put out there that energy that Xbox will close up shop if things keep going against them and then act outraged if someone else mentions it. As for how possible it is, as I've said previously on this matter Microsoft's current business no doubt in my mind has been losing tons of money which will mean the boss man at Microsoft made a mistake when he let it live instead of executing it like they did their phones. As it currently operates Microsoft certainly wouldn't keep it around, but its certainly possible to do so as a third party that puts their games on PS/PC/N/M. Th first issue with that are that Microsoft would look at the margins of their now third party publisher and likely think that even if it makes profits that the profits are too small and the money should instead go elsewhere where they can make bigger profits. Second issue would be that Microsoft would likely not seek to expand their studios further at that point but would certainly be willing to cut unprofitable studios so the division would get smaller and smaller as time goes on, a likely result because as we know Xbox is horribly managed though to be fair you would imagine they'd find someone else for the job, though considering Spencer is even less competent than Mattrick, whoever succeeds Spencer could well be even worse. I'd think considering how Microsoft has the new dream of finally competing with their "real competition", Apple and Google, with an app store that they'd want to retain these studios 

 

On a side note it is good to see that Phil Spencer is out of witness protection at last. 

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