Roulette not random at all.

[SicilianDragon92]

I think you might be speaking at cross purposes, this isn’t gamblers fallacy. If you flip a coin and get 30 heads in a row, you can be reasonably sure it isn’t a fair coin. Not strictly speaking impossible to do, but it is orders of magnitude more likely that the coin is biased than you got 30 in a row by fair chance.

[DaivRules]

20 minutes ago, SicilianDragon92 said:

I think you might be speaking at cross purposes, this isn’t gamblers fallacy. If you flip a coin and get 30 heads in a row, you can be reasonably sure it isn’t a fair coin. Not strictly speaking impossible to do, but it is orders of magnitude more likely that the coin is biased than you got 30 in a row by fair chance.

If you don’t quote or tag someone, it’s difficult to know who you are responding to. The gamblers fallacy is specifically directed to the person who has been using it to make a claim. And they’re definitely perpetuating gamblers fallacy. You’re discussing conditional probability and speaking theoretically. But you still reinforced it’s not impossible and understand why it’s not. 
 

The author of the thread and video have made an incorrect assumption about when in the game the prizes are randomly chosen. Using gamblers fallacy to reinforce that incorrect assumption just further makes it more incorrect. 
 

 

[SicilianDragon92]

7 minutes ago, DaivRules said:

If you don’t quote or tag someone, it’s difficult to know who you are responding to. The gamblers fallacy is specifically directed to the person who has been using it to make a claim. And they’re definitely perpetuating gamblers fallacy. You’re discussing conditional probability and speaking theoretically. But you still reinforced it’s not impossible and understand why it’s not. 
 

The author of the thread and video have made an incorrect assumption about when in the game the prizes are randomly chosen. Using gamblers fallacy to reinforce that incorrect assumption just further makes it more incorrect. 
 

 

My apologies for not quoting, there were multiple people who mentioned gamblers fallacy and I got caught out by a new page. It was a collective “you” not anyone in particular.

 

The original post may be false and I agree with your original assessment, but I was responding to your criticism of the one you quoted. If I understand them correctly I don’t think they are falling into gambler's fallacy. They are not saying that a 4 in 10 chance means they will necessary get 4 in every 10, they are saying that never hitting the 4 in 10 chance makes it likely that the chance is not 4 in 10. The phrase “statistically impossible” is reasonably interpreted as “a chance so small that it might as well be zero”. They didn’t mention any number of attempts, so this might not be a good way to put it, but over a large number of attempts it will be.

 

I don’t think I’m talking about conditional probability at all, in fact I’m specifically talking about independent events (like a coin flip). What do you understand gambler’s fallacy to be? Just because I think it might be different to what I think it is.

 

[J_Chmielinski]

Just got 2 cars in a row from my last 2 tickets, so a total of 3 across my 15 or so tickets.

[PJs_Banana]

5 hours ago, Sicho said:

guys, why is this topic still going on? I mentioned very early in this thread that my first roulettes weren't all just credits, which was the proof that you can win other stuff and it's not predetermined. The discussion should have been over by then

 

 

If you have a chance 6 in 10 to get something, it does not mean that if you use up 10 tickets that 6 of them will be winners. It's a 6 out of 10 chance for every single ticket individually!
Especially since the outcome of ticket 1 does not influence in any means the outcome of ticket 2. You could open 100 tickets with a 6 out of 10 chance to win something and still never win.

Maybe I can explain it better to you with another example: it is quite rare to be in a plane crash, right? So people that were in a plane crash and survived, think it might never happen to them again because what are the odds of being in a plane crash twice? Well, since plane crash 1 has absolutely no influence on any other plane, the chances that this person gets onto a plane and that plane crashes are exactly the same as before. It's not because there is a, let's say, one in a million chance that your plane crashes and it happens, that then the chances suddenly change to one in two million the next time you go on a plane.

If at a roulette table, the spin lands on the 0, chances that the next spin also lands on 0 are just as big as the spin before it. People like to think that because it landed on 0, there must be less chance for that to happen again. That is not true.

If you flip a coin, there's a 50 percent chance that it lands on heads or tails, right? If you were to flip four heads in a row, a person might believe that the next flip would be more likely to come up with tails rather than heads again. This is incorrect and mathematically provable. The chance of it being heads is always 1/2.
 

https://effectiviology.com/gamblers-fallacy/

 

There is a major difference in the odds of a single ticket producing a 60% chance to get coins and the odds of multiple tickets producing a 60% to get coins. Gambler's fallacy is the connection between the two, which doesn't really exist. However, statistically speaking, the odds of something happening in a row drop at an exponential rate.

For example, you have 10 tickets and all have a 3 out of 5 as coins.

These individual tickets all have a 60% chance of rolling coins. 

These combined tickets have a 0.6% chance to all roll coins. (chance ^ quantity)

 

As some have said, it's a statistical anomaly for people (like myself) to have rolled over 10 tickets and gotten coins each time. This results in the conclusion that the odds are not even. 

 

[Sicho]

3 minutes ago, Feli-Rysto- said:

 This results in the conclusion that the odds are not even. 

 

the discussion is not about the odds.

 

What OP was claiming is that the whole roulette is just a show and that the results are HARDCODED and not random and every player gets the same results on the same tickets. At least that is what I understand when they say "it is all pre-determined". They then used the gambler's fallacy to "prove" their point by saying "look I re-rolled the ticket x times and still always got coins but after so many times it should have been something else at least once."

This is not true. If the prize draw was random during the roulette video sequence, they still could have opened only coins for dozens of rolls in a row. Very improbable, yes, but the chance of it happening is not 0. And since there are only five items on a ticket, it's a 1 to 5 aka 20% chance on the ticket to roll the small coin stack. (if odds are even - and they are not) They probably did not test this 100 times but maybe three times? So still an 8% chance to get the same result three times in a row. It's a low chance but far from impossible. So their "test" did not prove anything because their test was based on the idea that the more often they roll coins, the bigger the chances should not get the same coin stack again in the next roll. 

 

The reason they got coins all the time is  that the roulette sequence is indeed a show and when you are at that point, the ticket price is already decided. The actual roll of the price happens as soon as you get the ticket - hence why reloading their save did not change OPs results. But there is an actual roll that happens when you get the ticket and this roll is random because otherwise I would have gotten only coins in my first three tickets and I did not.

 

What you are saying is of course true and the prize odds are not even but I don't think anyone is expecting them to be. In gaming, it's always like this. An enemy in an RPG might have a loot table containing three different items but that does not mean that these three items have the same chance of dropping when killing said enemy. It's a pretty standard thing in videogames that "drops" have a rarity, which is just a fancier way of saying "the odds are not in favor of this thing dropping to you".

So while the roulette graphic shows 5 items, it is probably not a chance of 20% for each item. I don't know what the "loot table" for the GT7 roulette tickets looks like but of course, it is leaning towards the coins and the more desirable prices are rarer. But that is not the same as "it is all pre-determined", which is what was actually discussed in this thread.

 

 

[grimydawg___]

11 hours ago, TJsTrophies said:

Not sure you understand how the statistics work if you think it's an impossibility lol.

He using Scott Steiner math

[SiC]

Just finished Cafe mode, here is my numbers (cafe mode + 4 daily workout)

cars: 1 (last reward ticket)

tuning parts: 6

money: the rest

Edited March 7, 2022 by sXe_SiC_

[Skargarim]

I don't mind getting the coins. what sucks is to also ALWAYS get the smallest stack! The way they present those tickets to you is what i find annoying. If they said "here's your 2k coins reward", it would be fine, dissapointing compared with what you can win in races, almost negligible, but fine. Showing all the stuff you most likely won't win, or maybe with a 1/100 chance is just upsetting. i don't see a reason why a gambling aspect like this is a valuable addition to the game?! it's not even fkn lootboxes you can buy for real money. not that I would like to see that!!!, but that would at least make sense from the developers point of view.

[barra333]

I'd like to proudly state that my daily workout award yesterday got me.... the second smallest pile of coins!

[Fanatico1981]

Just used my 6 star roulette ticket.

 

I got the jackpoint with 1kk credits.

So no complains from my side for the next 100 tickets. ?

[da-Noob123]

Don't mind me, I'm just here for the course in statistics.?

Edited March 7, 2022 by da-Noob123

[rospondek]

So with me over 30 tickets right now (34 if I didn't lost my count, and probably did). Stats? Well...

• 2 parts to cars I don't own (Murcielago weight reduction and some transmission to something) totally worth of 40k Cr.
• 2 invitations to buy a car for 3.5 and 2mln Cr. while I'm at 1.6mln right now.
• 1 10k Cr. (it was a party!)
• 1 car Toyota Yaris worth 15k I guess.
• The rest 2-5k Cr.

If we could maybe just stop the spinning it would be better but no matter what and when you push the spinning lasts the same time.

It's a little better with the three cards as I managed to get couple of times the best car in the set but still...

[Sir_Bee]

I am confused where the assumption that all 5 spokes on the roulette have even odds of happening?  I keep saying people say that there is a 60% chance of getting coins ... is that specifically mentioned somewhere, or is that an assumption made here?

 

Also, as mentioned previously, just because the prize is determined upon receipt of the ticket, does not mean it was not determined randomly.  They have nothing to do with one another.  All that means is that the game knows what you will win as soon as you get the ticket.  This is a way the developers can prevent you from "re-spinning" to get whatever prize you want.  Still a random prize, you just can't rig the game.

Edited March 8, 2022 by Sir_Bee

[Onion_TK]

Well I think it is all about luck guys. 

I have had some 3 stars ticket (I do not remember exactly maybe 7 or 8), I have got Genesis and Alpine to be honest.