Microsoft is buying Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion [FTC sues to stop - CMA issues updated preliminary findings]

[boaly2008]

Just now, Rozalia1 said:

On the matter of buying out the contract. With what would they do that with anyway? As established, game pass wrecks profitability. Bethesda today is worth a lot less than it was in the past because their games sales have been heavily cannibalised by game pass. Heck, even if it could happen Bethesda would independently be so vulnerable that they well just collapse without Microsoft holding them up. That is the extent that Microsoft damages the gaming companies they buy out.

I mean, you couldnt. Even if they could make a successful and profitable game, due to their multi-studio nature, Microsoft could just greenlight and invest in enough projects to make the company unprofitable again to prevent it ever being viable.

 

I dont think the clause would even exist though, unless were referring to individual studios that had a clause with Zenimax prior to aquisition. It's very rare to see those clauses in buyouts of publicly traded companies, usually because shareholders have no interest in employees taking ownership of the company long after theyve cashed out, so they immediately sacrifice it on the pier to get a larger payout per share.

 

 

[Rozalia1]

24 minutes ago, boaly2008 said:

I mean, you couldnt. Even if they could make a successful and profitable game, due to their multi-studio nature, Microsoft could just greenlight and invest in enough projects to make the company unprofitable again to prevent it ever being viable.

 

I dont think the clause would even exist though, unless were referring to individual studios that had a clause with Zenimax prior to aquisition. It's very rare to see those clauses in buyouts of publicly traded companies, usually because shareholders have no interest in employees taking ownership of the company long after theyve cashed out, so they immediately sacrifice it on the pier to get a larger payout per share.

 

True, and already having had someone escape them they certainly will try to be on the ball to not allow it again.

 

True again, the shareholders in this case had no reason to include any such clause. Mojang I believe did, hence why Minecraft has been such an exception for Microsoft even though we have it on record that Spencer and company all want it exclusive, but mysteriously it isn't. Considering Microsoft claims that they're all about cross play and all that, with Minecraft as an example of their seriousness... it would have been nice if the FTC could out that contract that was signed with Mojang. After all, if it is found that there is such a clause (even if timed), then it destroys yet another of Microsoft's narratives.

[Rozalia1]

Okay, the FTC just accidently leaked information which works against Microsoft's narrative that making CoD exclusive is a no go due to too much money lost. It makes sense to me, but keep in mind I actually missed this myself as this trial runs all day practically and I was away at the time. Some say the 2 million only covers CoD changing from having a 80/20 rate to 70/30 rate on PlayStation... but those people saying that being Microsoft people makes me wary to believe them.

 

Anyway, Microsoft internally has put it down that if they get 2 million more game pass subscribers then that will be enough to cover the damage of taking CoD off PlayStation. If you're finding it puzzling at the number being so low, the explanation is what came up with Nadella. Microsoft sets low (I'd add very to that) metrics for Xbox to reach that allow them to talk of Xbox as being successful. 2 million extra subscribers is certainly not enough to cover the financial damage from taking the games off PlayStation, but if Xbox can meet that then it allows them to state that the change was successful as they met the (low) internal metrics.

 

Another matter is Activision has a valuation model which is something that Microsoft points to why they wouldn't make CoD exclusive... however with Bethesda they changed that model after the deal went through. This means Microsoft can say that it doesn't make sense with their model now, but then change the model so it does make sense. 

 

There we have it. It is true that Microsoft maintains internally that CoD being exclusive would have to make financial sense, but the metric set is so low that they can reach it. The FTC also pointed out how putting CoD on Nintendo would increase profitability of CoD, the idea being that it would help Microsoft in cutting out PlayStation. As we know Microsoft is laser focused on eliminating Sony and as such takes no moves against Nintendo (if Sony were to fall this would instantly change, as per Microsoft's known playbook). Another thing that came out was that Minecraft revenue is the lowest on Xbox, with PlayStation being twice as big, and Nintendo being four times as big. Embarrassing stuff, but further pushes the point I'd say that Microsoft could certainly use selling CoD on Nintendo to aid them in justifying taking it off PlayStation.

 

Keep in mind... these metrics are set low... and game pass has failed 2 (3 now?) years running to reach them. They cook the books so hard on everything relating to Xbox and they still can't do it.

 

Another thing to keep in mind is that under oath Microsoft's CFO claimed that Microsoft never explored the idea of taking CoD off PlayStation. All the stuff above shows otherwise. Spencer also has been exposed lying under oath as he has claimed that Elder Scroll's exclusivity is a question mark, yet emails from 2 years ago from him state that everything will be exclusive which includes of course, Elder Scrolls.

 

The gaming media should absolutely be ripping apart Microsoft for these lies which keep piling up and yet I've not seen it thus far. Pathetic stuff. On a good note, that shill Hoeg Law is now stating that the chance of the FTC winning is around 50-50 now. On one hand he may be trying to retain some credibility either way it goes, on the other hand he must realise that the amount of times Microsoft has been exposed has reached silly numbers and that it is starting to look real bad.

Edited June 29, 2023 by Rozalia1

[Rozalia1]

 

Ah yes, Microsoft tried to not do that... except you know it has been exposed in court they never stopped. He should know that, but what can you expect from a shill.

 

Stuff like this is why gaming media is seen as a joke. An editor at IGN commenting over an IGN article by someone else and defending Microsoft when it has been exposed to have been lying this whole time. Naturally it is as ever Sony's fault. 

 

The level of media capture Microsoft has in gaming is disgusting. They have the worse games, they're usually delayed on top of that, the management does nothing but lie, they're obviously heavily incompetent, and are by far the least popular gaming brand... yet looking at the media you'd assume they were the most popular. The only saving grace with all this is that their poor behaviour is not unnoticed and some have actually been cut off by Sony and even Nintendo. No free games, no exclusive interviews/coverage, no nothing for those guys.

[MidnightDragon]

LOL, Microsoft said all other world regulators were for the deal besides the UK. Canada said,"Not so fast!"

 

https://www.ign.com/articles/xbox-claims-worldwide-regulators-onboard-with-activision-blizzard-merger-canada-disagrees

 

Honestly, after all this, don't think anything Microsoft says or does can surprise me anymore.  

Edited June 29, 2023 by MidnightDragon

[Rozalia1]

1 minute ago, MidnightDragon said:

LOL, Microsoft said all other world regulators were for the deal besides the UK. Canada said,"Not so fast!"

 

https://www.ign.com/articles/xbox-claims-worldwide-regulators-onboard-with-activision-blizzard-merger-canada-disagrees

 

Honestly, after all this, don't think anything Microsoft says or does can surprise me anymore.  

 

UK/US/CA/NZ and likely AU aren't on board with Microsoft.

 

Microsoft knows this, but it is a nice little lie for them to astroturf so they do. The other element of it is to present the EU passing of the deal as 27 different countries.

[MidnightDragon]

2 minutes ago, Rozalia1 said:

 

UK/US/CA/NZ and likely AU aren't on board with Microsoft.

 

Microsoft knows this, but it is a nice little lie for them to astroturf so they do. The other element of it is to present the EU passing of the deal as 27 different countries.

I'm guessing you're like me...you don't think there's much they can say or do that would shock you anymore. I know people legitimately hoped MS had changed its bad old ways...but a zebra doesn't change its stripes. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by MidnightDragon

[Rozalia1]

36 minutes ago, MidnightDragon said:

I'm guessing you're like me...you don't think there's much they can say or do that would shock you anymore. I know people legitimately hoped MS had changed its bad old ways...but a zebra doesn't change its stripes. 

 

They don't surprise me no. All this stuff coming out are things I've said are likely the case in the past, but up till now Microsoft's defenders have always had the 'where is the proof' defence when they knew full well how obviously true it all was. Beyond the general distrust of such a company actually changing, it is the PR machine they have set up that really makes me further distrust them. It clearly works on some people to get them thinking Microsoft is now a "good guy"... but if Microsoft truly were a good guy why would they need such a thing? The tactics they use are not ones used by good actors.

 

They're the same Microsoft, but one that having had the scare of possibly being broken up in the past now runs an extensive PR, astroturfing, and political corruption network to try and present themselves as good guys. Said network has worked politically for a long time now, and it has really seized a lot of gaming media/influencer scene... but it clearly hasn't actually captured gamers. Up to this point no matter how much money Microsoft has spent, no matter how much they've astroturfed, gamers have gone to where the better games are. Sony & Nintendo. Microsoft meanwhile only sees their Xbox fall further and further apart.

 

Which is what the Xbox deserves. As I've said, there simply is no passion or soul at Xbox. There is no time for such things because Microsoft wants a monopoly and competing honestly and trying to do better organically takes time and simply does not give the profit margins that Microsoft wants. They'd much rather just cut Xbox entirely then do that.

[MidnightDragon]

I wonder if MS has ever tried to buy Nintendo again beyond the failed attempt in 2000. I know they couldn’t air Nintendo’s testimony in public today.

[Rozalia1]

https://twitter.com/Shannon_Liao/status/1674501396287090714?s=20

https://www.ign.com/articles/the-ftc-trial-unmasks-xboxs-ambitions

 

Finally. It could be a lot tougher, but at least it is something. Of course Microsoft's agents will attempt to cast it as unfair and 'not neutral', even though they happily push obviously biased guys.

 

Just now, MidnightDragon said:

I wonder if MS has ever tried to buy Nintendo again beyond the failed attempt in 2000. I know they couldn’t air Nintendo’s testimony in public today.

 

Unlikely. They attempted to buy Nintendo because they were entering the market and so such a purchase would be allowed. With Microsoft being a platform holder it means that Nintendo, another platform holder, is out of bounds to them. The only way Microsoft could potentially buy Nintendo would be if they scrapped their gaming business and then attempted the purchase. Nintendo, and a lot more people, would all laugh it off of course. Not that it matters. Nintendo is a cultural powerhouse in Japan and would never be allowed to be bought by a foreigner. Same with Sony.

 

What is possible is a much closer relationship. Microsoft is a spiteful company and has clearly despised Sony for 20+ years now, and if totally defeated to the extent that they have to largely retreat from gaming then we should expect them to attempt to strengthen Nintendo against Sony. Their cloud services can be leased to Nintendo at a cheap rate so they get a better service than Sony. Whatever studios aren't dissolved can make games for Nintendo (plus PC/Mobile), but specifically not PlayStation. Their game pass if kept around will likely decrease in investment greatly, I imagine becoming more of a catalogue service like PS+ Extra, and they'll seek to put that on Nintendo's service on very generous terms. 

[majob]

I've honestly already heard rumors of MS trying to get Gamepass on the Switch so they could be doing it now for all we know

[Rozalia1]

8 minutes ago, majob said:

I've honestly already heard rumors of MS trying to get Gamepass on the Switch so they could be doing it now for all we know

 

It does make some sense. Third party indies and Japanese companies do very well on Nintendo, but the western third parties tend to do badly. So a fully intact game pass on Switch does a reduced level of damage than it would do on PlayStation. 

 

The thing is though... there is something more valuable than money in a case like that. Time. Western third parties attempting to hurt Nintendo by pulling support back in the day only hurt themselves in the end because it just meant that Nintendo gamers had more time to devote elsewhere, most notably Nintendo's own first party games. So even if game pass is a financial plus for Nintendo, it possibly taking time away from their own games is something I imagine would cause them to turn it down. As such, like with any attempt with Sony, they'd have to take out the third party titles I would think before Nintendo would even consider it.

Edited June 29, 2023 by Rozalia1

[ZitMeatloaf]

21 minutes ago, Rozalia1 said:

What is possible is a much closer relationship. Microsoft is a spiteful company and has clearly despised Sony for 20+ years now, and if totally defeated to the extent that they have to largely retreat from gaming then we should expect them to attempt to strengthen Nintendo against Sony. Their cloud services can be leased to Nintendo at a cheap rate so they get a better service than Sony. Whatever studios aren't dissolved can make games for Nintendo (plus PC/Mobile), but specifically not PlayStation. Their game pass if kept around will likely decrease in investment greatly, I imagine becoming more of a catalogue service like PS+ Extra, and they'll seek to put that on Nintendo's service on very generous terms. 

What a sad state of gaming that would be... I really hope this doesn't happen. Speaking purely off of personal preference here, as I enjoy gaming on both Sony and Nintendo platforms.

 

Nintendo I think would certainly take advantage of favorable deals offered by MS which benefit them, but if they felt like MS was trying to use them as a tool just to stick it to Sony... they may balk at that and refuse deals which make them look like an active participant in a revenge scheme. They know they have an extremely loyal fanbase and probably wouldn't want to sour their image with the public. This is a fanbase which purchased 10 million copies of Tears of the Kingdom at $70 within three days of release - and at best, Zelda is Nintendo's fifth most popular franchise behind Pokemon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and Mario (it may even be behind Smash Bros.). They don't need Microsoft's help in selling games or systems.

[Rozalia1]

4 minutes ago, ZitMeatloaf said:

What a sad state of gaming that would be... I really hope this doesn't happen. Speaking purely off of personal preference here, as I enjoy gaming on both Sony and Nintendo platforms.

 

Nintendo I think would certainly take advantage of favorable deals offered by MS which benefit them, but if they felt like MS was trying to use them as a tool just to stick it to Sony... they may balk at that and refuse deals which make them look like an active participant in a revenge scheme. They know they have an extremely loyal fanbase and probably wouldn't want to sour their image with the public. This is a fanbase which purchased 10 million copies of Tears of the Kingdom at $70 within three days of release - and at best, Zelda is Nintendo's fifth most popular franchise behind Pokemon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and Mario (it may even be behind Smash Bros.). They don't need Microsoft's help in selling games or systems.

 

Good point. Nintendo in the past took damage teaming up with a western company against Sony and it could potentially happen again, so they might avoid an obvious partnership on that basis alone.

---

 

Closing arguments are going on right now. FTC is going first and I have to say, it has not been pretty. The judge is really attacking everything and there is a lot of dismissing. Many are calling it right now... but I will give the judge a chance. We'll see how she deals with Microsoft's lawyers, but if she treats them differently then yeah, the result will likely be obvious at that point.

[kidson2004]

Been lightweight keeping up with all of this on Twitter. I know that today's the closing arguments and all, but I have a feeling this won't go through. Now what'll really be interesting moving forward is how the gaming industry will be shaping up after all of this is said and done. 

[Oberlin1694]

9 minutes ago, Rozalia1 said:

 

Good point. Nintendo in the past took damage teaming up with a western company against Sony and it could potentially happen again, so they might avoid an obvious partnership on that basis alone.

---

 

Closing arguments are going on right now. FTC is going first and I have to say, it has not been pretty. The judge is really attacking everything and there is a lot of dismissing. Many are calling it right now... but I will give the judge a chance. We'll see how she deals with Microsoft's lawyers, but if she treats them differently then yeah, the result will likely be obvious at that point.

If the Judge allows this to be passed at this point with all of the damning evidence she needs to be investigated. As it’ll be obvious to many bar the Xbox fanboys that she’s extremely biased in favor of Microsoft. 
 

If it’s allowed to pass with all the lies and shady, underhanded deals that Microsoft has been exposed for, then I’d say she’s likely been paid off in private to allow it to pass. We’ve seen how snakey MS truly is now, I wouldn’t put it past them. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Oberlin1694

[CrimsonVoidGX]

What is trully sad is seeing COD content creators on Youtube that I actually enjoy watching passing a blind eye on MS bullshit and activelly wanting the deal to go trough to "save COD" due to either MS resources or so Activision CEO can leave.

[Oberlin1694]

3 minutes ago, CrimsonVoidGX said:

What is trully sad is seeing COD content creators on Youtube that I actually enjoy watching passing a blind eye on MS bullshit and activelly wanting the deal to go trough to "save COD" due to either MS resources or so Activision CEO can leave.

With how badly Microsoft absolutely fucked Gears and Halo I’d be worried about CoD going forward, they’ll inevitably fuck it up and destroy the entire franchise too. Just like they also did with Dead Rising and Rare as a studio just in general.

 

They're incapable of a quality release, their best exclusives in the last decade have been average at best compared to their competition. 
 

They’ll run Activision into the ground, just like they’re slowly running Zenimax’s studios into the ground. They destroyed any goodwill people had with Arkane with the travesty that was Redfall and lost 70% of the studio’s talent in the process.

 

I don’t see how anyone can support them, pure delusion, they basically killed off Arkane, which made fucking fantastic games, with their first god damn release with them. I dread to see what other tripe they’re going to produce next. Tango Gameworks and Machine Games are royally ducked at this point.

 

Though I can also just see Shinji Mikami taking his best staff from Tango and ditching the studio to make her another new one. He really doesn’t like outside interference on his projects, it’s why he left Capcom, so I doubt he’ll stick around with Xbox when he’s primarily developed for PlayStation and Nintendo. 

[Rozalia1]

8 minutes ago, Oberlin1694 said:

If the Judge allows this to be passed at this point with all of the damning evidence she needs to be investigated. As it’ll be obvious to many bar the Xbox fanboys that she’s extremely biased in favor of Microsoft. 

 

This is really quite incredible. Judge right now literally just asked the FTC 'Why isn't everyone just a PC gamer?'. Then she made the claim that everyone has a 1500 dollar PC. The implication seems to be that who cares if PlayStation is foreclosed if people can just play on their PCs?

 

This judge has been involved in this and another gaming case and is struggling with these simple matters. Some real ignorance of the common person if she believes that everyone just has a top of the line PC they can just use instead of a console.

[Oberlin1694]

28 minutes ago, Rozalia1 said:

 

This is really quite incredible. Judge right now literally just asked the FTC 'Why isn't everyone just a PC gamer?'. Then she made the claim that everyone has a 1500 dollar PC. The implication seems to be that who cares if PlayStation is foreclosed if people can just play on their PCs?

 

This judge has been involved in this and another gaming case and is struggling with these simple matters. Some real ignorance of the common person if she believes that everyone just has a top of the line PC they can just use instead of a console.

She sounds delusional. Like she shouldn’t be overseeing a case like this if she’s that damn clueless

[Zephrese]

14 minutes ago, Oberlin1694 said:

She sounds delusional. Like she shouldn’t be overseeing a case like this if she’s that damn clueless

 

Or this (potentially) corrupt, for that matter.

Edited June 29, 2023 by Zephrese

[MidnightDragon]

As for the judge, a lot of people in power don’t understand how these things work. You should hear technology hearings in Congress. Sounds very similar to this. On the other hand, the FTC lawyers are shooting themselves in the foot pretty badly here. 

[Zephrese]

I'm admittedly not particularly concerned about this case in of itself, if only because I didn't expect the FTC to get very far through this in the first place given how excessively and cancerously pro-capitalism the US is, and I'd imagine that the CMA will have an absolute field day with the amount of ammunition all of this has likely given them (and all of it - for the most part, anyway - coming directly from the snake's mouth, no less).

 

This whole case has been a moronic circus regardless. Microsoft's been looking really bad, going as far as to somehow manage looking worse than usual even. The daft judge, on the other hand, is an absolute dolt (and that's putting it lightly).

Edited July 16, 2023 by Zephrese

[Rozalia1]

Microsoft lawyer is rarely speaking up as it is the FTC's time, but there has been a funny little thing that has happened. She made a mistake with Elder Scrolls and Final Fantasy, so she said Elder Scrolls 16 and Final Fantasy 6. There was some dishonesty though as she mentioned that Final Fantasy 6 isn't on Xbox this year, but it was last year (15). This has actually happened before where Microsoft presents Final Fantasy to the judge as if it is a yearly series... wait... is the lawyer actually referring to Final Fantasy Origin as last year's game? Chaos. She then obviously pointed to Minecraft and that not being exclusive, good guy Microsoft and all that.

 

5 minutes ago, Zephrese said:

Or (potentially) this corrupt.

 

Possibly, but I don't want to rush to rush into such thinking. Throughout the case the judge has been very investigative and has come off very Microsoft friendly as a result of that, as often she is asking the FTC to explain every other detail to her. As @MidnightDragon said, judges often simply don't understand these things. This judge straight up was putting forward the idea that everybody has a 1500 dollar PC at home they can use instead of a console is completely out of touch. Though later she put forward that obviously the Switch was the best based off what has come up. The judge also seems to have only figured out that CoD was a shooter today, I was talking to someone else and only heard it in the background during that bit, but I think that was what I heard.

 

4 minutes ago, MidnightDragon said:

As for the judge, a lot of people in power don’t understand how these things work. You should hear technology hearings in Congress. Sounds very similar to this. On the other hand, the FTC lawyers are shooting themselves in the foot pretty badly here. 

 

Yeah. There are times where I'm baffled why they aren't bringing up certain things. I get that pressure exists, but there are a good number of them present and the judge is allowing them to interject.

 

Just now, Zephrese said:

I'm not particularly concerned about this case if of itself, if only because I didn't expect the FTC to get very far in the first place given how excessively and cancerously pro-capitalist the US is, and I'd imagine that the CMA will have an absolute field day with the amount of ammunition all of this has likely given them (and all of it - for the most part - coming directly from the snake's mouth, no less).

 

Yeah. As long as the CMA holds strong then whatever happens here is largely irrelevant, though it certainly helps them make a stronger case yes. Numerous lies of Microsoft has come out so even if they overcome the FTC they've taken damage.

[MidnightDragon]

If the government had concerns about it she was biased towards MS, likely would’ve requested to change judges or ask her to recuse herself (no requirement she had to), they would’ve. So guess we’ll see. I never expected it to get here anyway.